Professor Syed Ahsanul Alam
Prelude
With approximately 18 crores plus population, Bangladesh suffers from dangerous political divide amongst its people. Any expert will definitely agree that economic decline, all pervasive corruption, an associated socio-political issue poses to be the major national crisis. But many will fail to identify the root cause, underlining the major constraints for development, equitable distribution of wealth and inclusive social upliftment. After liberation war in 1971, the first constitution which outlined the spirit of liberation war was changed by the then prime minister Sheikh Mujibur Rahman to form ‘Baksal’-a one party political system. After the killing of Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, again 5th constitutional amendment was made by late President Ziaur Rahman to return to the multi-party-political system. Since then, different regime made constitutional amendments basically in their favor and to legitimate their actions. Thus, the constitution of Bangladesh went through many surgeries not addressing the aspiration of suffering million and no denying the fact that many of those regime changes created vulnerable political divide among the large population in a small country having 4100 km border with India and the rest with Myanmar and Bay of Bengal. Indeed, the 5th August revolution and the subsequent interim government headed by Nobel Laurate Professor Yunus will have to address the economic crisis, highly infected society with discrimination and corruption and geo politics. Amid Major challenge of political divide among the people of Bangladesh to step forward towards an inclusive society and establish discrimination and corruption free governance in Bangladesh, the interim government of Bangladesh is striving to bridge the gap between reality and aspiration.
Bangladesh’s Political Journey and Governance Challenges (1971-2024)
Since its independence in 1971, Bangladesh’s political trajectory has been marked by significant turbulence and transformation. Emerging as a sovereign nation after a brutal war of liberation, the country has traversed through periods of military rule, political governance, and political upheaval. This journey has been shaped by the interplay of political ideologies, shifting alliances, and governance challenges, notably corruption and the struggle to establish a stable, inclusive democratic framework.
Post Independence Era and Military Interventions: 1971–1990
The post-independence period under Sheikh Mujibur Rahman was characterized by the establishment of a parliamentary democracy, but the nation soon faced challenges related to governance, economic turmoil, and allegations of rising authoritarianism. Following the assassination of Sheikh Mujib in 1975, Bangladesh entered in an era of politics of generals namely General Ziaur Rahman (1975-1981) and later Hussain Muhammad Ershad (1982-1990). These years were marked by rule of person not people, frequent military interventions, and political suppression, yet there was a semblance of economic stability and infrastructural development.
Democratic Transition and Instability: 1991–2006
The restoration of political governance in 1991 with Begum Khaleda Zia’s Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) brought new hopes for democratic consolidation. Alternating between the BNP and Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League (AL), the period saw major political unrest, with frequent hartals (strikes), electoral boycotts, and accusations of rigged elections. The lack of a neutral caretaker government to oversee elections led to widespread discontent, paving the way for reforms, including the introduction of the caretaker government system in 1996 by BNP, which was later abolished in 2011 by AL.
The Interim Regime and Its Aftermath: 2007–2008
The interim regime of 2007-2008, backed by the military, emerged amidst a backdrop of intense political conflict and governance failures. Led by a technocratic caretaker government, it aimed to curb corruption and restore political stability. Prominent political leaders were detained under anti-corruption drives, and political reforms were initiated. Despite its efforts, the regime faced criticism for its perceived overreach and failure to gain the trust of all political factions, which hampered its ability to achieve broad political consensus. The regime ended with the 2008 parliamentary elections that restored political governance under Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League.
Political Consolidation and Governance Challenges: 2009–2024:
Since 2009, the Awami League, led by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, has maintained an unbroken rule. The period witnessed rapid economic growth, infrastructural development, and strides in social indicators such as literacy and health. However, it has also been marred by a serious allegation of authoritarianism, suppression of dissent, and erosion of democratic institutions. Corruption has remained a critical challenge, with Bangladesh ranked 147th out of 180 countries in Transparency International’s 2023 Corruption Perceptions Index. Moreover, political confrontations, particularly with the BNP and the absence of credible opposition in the parliament, have raised concerns about the lack of political inclusivity and good governance. The abolition of the caretaker government system and highly controversial elections in 2014 and 2018 have further fueled allegations of electoral fraudulence and democratic backsliding.
Interim Regime-2024
Interim regimes have played a pivotal role in Bangladesh’s political history, often serving as critical instruments during periods of political impasse. The concept of a caretaker or interim government was introduced formally through constitutional amendments in the 1990s, following the intense political turmoil and widespread mistrust in the electoral process. This led to the 13th Amendment in 1996, which was institutionalized by BNP by making provision for a non-partisan caretaker government to oversee elections, a system that was in constitution remained until it was abolished by Sheikh Hasina by changing the constitution through amendments 15th in 2011 under the Awami League government.
The abolition of the caretaker system, however, did not eliminate the need for neutral oversight in ensuring credible elections. The political environment has since been marked by periodic calls for reinstating caretaker government system, especially during contentious election cycles. The current interim regime, established in 2024, emerged from a similar context—public discontent with governance, calls for greater transparency, and heightened political polarization between the ruling Awami League, the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), and many other Islamic Political forces i.e Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami, Hefazat-e-Islam Bangladesh and other like-minded groups demanded the same.
Recent Developments Leading to the Interim Regime
The journey of the current interim government began with a series of political confrontations and electoral disputes. The opposition parties and civil society organizations alleged widespread electoral fraud and voter suppression in the 2018 general elections, resulting in a decline in public trust in the electoral process. According to a report by Transparency International Bangladesh (TIB), the 12th National Parliament Election faced significant challenges and controversies, raising concerns over the legitimacy of the democratic process.
In 2023, tensions reached a tipping point when mass protests, led predominantly by student bodies and opposition groups, called for electoral reforms and the resignation of the incumbent government. The political crisis prompted international actors, including the United Nations and the European Union, to call for dialogue and a peaceful resolution to the impasse.
During this period, the anti-discrimination students’ movement from July 15 to August 5 resulted in significant casualties. According to the latest data, the government today published a draft list of 708 individuals who lost their lives during the student-led mass uprising in July and August this year. According to a public notice signed by Umme Habiba, Deputy Secretary of the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, the list is available for public review on https://medical-
info.dghs.gov.bd/ until 6 October. In a related update, Tarekul Islam, member secretary and coordinator of the central sub-committee on health for the Anti- Discrimination Student Movement, posted on Facebook on 21st September 2024 that 1,423 people were killed and over 22,000 injured in the movement across the country and more than 400 people became blind. These tragic events ultimately led to the fall of Sheikh Hasina’s government, marking a significant turning point in the country’s political landscape.
Establishment of the 2024 Interim Regime
In response to escalating unrest, and under significant pressure from both domestic stakeholders and the international community, the Sheikh Hasina agreed to step down, paving the way for the formation of an interim regime. This government, led by Professor Muhammad Yunus, was tasked with restoring order and overseeing a fresh round of elections. The appointment of Yunus—a globally renowned figure and Nobel laureate—was seen as a strategic move to gain both domestic acceptance and international credibility.
Within weeks of its establishment, the interim government set up six commissions (election, police, judiciary, anti-corruption, public administration, and constitutional reforms) to address key issues, ranging from electoral reforms to human rights inquiries. The establishment of these commissions was widely lauded, with the World Bank pledging $3.5 billion to support the interim government’s initiatives aimed at stabilizing the economy and improving governance.
Public and International Reactions
The formation of the interim government was met with mixed reactions domestically. While a slight majority (53%) of the population expressed optimism about the potential for a fair electoral process under the interim regime, 47% remained skeptical, citing concerns over potential bias and the government’s ability to remain neutral amid intense political polarization
Internationally, the interim regime has received significant backing from Western countries and multilateral agencies. During his visit to the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in September 2024, Professor Yunus secured commitments for financial aid and technical assistance, with the European Union, USAID, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expressing support for his reform initiatives.
Current Regime and the Interim Debate
As the nation approaches another general election, the debate over an interim regime or neutral caretaker government has resurfaced. The opposition’s demand for an impartial interim government to ensure a fair electoral process has gained momentum amidst concerns about a repeat of past political unrest. This backdrop of governance challenges, coupled with an evolving political landscape, sets the stage for potential reforms and the search for a governance model that can address the country’s pressing need for a corruption-free, inclusive, and stable political environment.
This historical overview underscores that while Bangladesh has made strides in economic and social domains, governance and political stability continue to be undermined by entrenched corruption, factional politics, and a fragile democratic framework.
Major Challenges Ahead for The Interim Government
The current regime led by Noble laureate professor Yunus, has completed its first two months with a good start and proactive journey towards the fulfillment of aspiration of democracy loving people of Bangladesh. He has taken the helm of affairs in a situation when all the institutions of Bangladesh were destroyed due to corruption and total politicization. The deceived and the relatively less educated simple people of Bangladesh has no idea about the fact that a free fair election can not be held with a politically and economically corrupt election commission, anti- corruption commission, a mal-functioning human right commission and biased mainstream and social media. Furthermore, our police were forced to become seriously anti people, become oppressive to work as the police of the government. As at October, 2024; it is not rational to make any judgement on this interim government’s performance. Everybody will agree that it is too early to make any assessment as to what the interim government headed by Professor. Yunus can deliver. Definitely the outcome of this interim government will be proportional to the time frame given to this regime. Many political analysts are scared that amid complexities of the desire of ousted Awami League and Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the Islamic parties whether can come to a common consensus about giving adequate time to this interim government to deliver the aspiration of people of Bangladesh. Many believes regime change form AL to interim to next elected government will not be able to change the fate of the working poor and suffering mass of Bangladesh. If a corrupt regime is substituted by another elected corrupt regime will bring no good for the people. Many agree with Dr. Yunus that this is the last chance to bring reform and install a pro poor government, fairly elected by the voters.
Concluding Remark
It is very difficult and quite impossible to predict the future of Yunus regime and the political fate of Bangladesh. Any aware citizen knows, change of political regime can not salvage the economy from further decline. Bangladesh’s relationship with India and Myanmar is by no standard harmonious. The power game of China, India, Russia and US to increase dominance in the Bay of Bengal can not be undermine. Bangladesh has internal and external political threats. If this situation is not properly steered, it may result in regional war or even infight among the blind supporters of ousted Awami League and Bangladesh Nationalist Party the main aspirant to come to power in the next election. However, the influence of the Jamaat e Islami Bangladesh and other Islamic political parties is believed to increase in the future. It is interesting to note that AL and BNP do not practice inter party democracy while Jamaat-e-Isalmi has their own practice of democracy internal to their party. It is a question of the time that whether political parties can exercise intra party democracy in the absence of practicing inter party democracy. It is estimated that 60% of our voters are politically blind to their parties and to the symbol of Nouka-(Boat) and Dhaner Shis-(Paddy). It is not very illogical whether this interim government can overcome some major limitations of the 1/11 government, specially, whether the interim government headed by Professor Yunus can restore all political parties on board towards a common direction to ensure a free fair election. Many may not agree with me but I see a bleak future of pro people, democratic governance in the near future. Professor Yunus has to overcome the pressure from the major political forces, corrupt bureaucracy, and the destructive activities of the oligarchs of the previous regimes.
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About Author:
Professor Syed Ahsanul Alam Professor, Department of Marketing, University of Chittagong Chairman- NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research Bangladesh)